Od povlačenja do eskalacije: Forenzičko-psihološki model promene rizika nakon mere zabrane približavanja i komunikacije sa oštećenim

Nataša Pavlović

doi:10.47152/ziksi2026024

Authors

Nataša Pavlović University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Philosophy, Department of Psychology, Novi Sad, Serbia; University of Criminal Investigation and Police Studies, Department of Criminalistics, Belgrade, Serbia https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5706-2650

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47152/ziksi2026024

Keywords:

proximity and communication ban, stalking, risk assessment, forensic psychology, sensitivity to institutional consequences, fixation, institutional decision-making

Abstract

Introduction. No-contact and proximity orders are often evaluated through a binary distinction between compliance and formal violation. Such an approach may overlook tactical adaptation, covert circumvention, and early indicators of escalation. Objective. To develop a conceptual forensic-psychological framework for interpreting post-order behaviour and improving institutional recognition of changes in risk. Method. The paper presents a theoretical and analytical synthesis of the Serbian normative framework, empirical research on protective orders and stalking, risk-assessment models, and guidance for police practice. Results. A continuum of post-order responses is proposed, encompassing withdrawal and stabilisation, formal compliance with residual risk, adaptive circumvention of the order, reactive escalation, and fixated high-risk persistence. The continuum is linked to two working analytical dimensions: responsiveness to institutional consequences and degree of fixation, understood as the intensity of attachment to control. Cumulative behavioural chronology is used to distinguish genuine reduction in risk from tactical adaptation. Conclusion. The imposition of a protective order does not conclude risk assessment but marks the beginning of a new phase of dynamic monitoring. The proposed framework is not a validated assessment instrument and does not replace evidentiary evaluation; rather, it is intended to structure operational hypotheses and support police, prosecutorial, judicial, and multidisciplinary decision-making.

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